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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will decide who runs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, complete a remarkable comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd